Who is the clown?

Image above: Five circus clowns, like Donald Trump and his tech billionaires. © Wikipedia/ Library of Congress, USA.

by Prof. em. Jan Stel
former co-chair European Grandparents for Climate

Nemo, the clown fish

Who does not know the famous and entertaining animation Finding Nemo? Nemo is a clownfish surviving one disaster after another. Even before his birth, his family was eaten in their new home, Anemoon Reef view, except his father. The overprotective father takes great care of Nemo, who eventually gets a bit fed up with that, as he wanted to explore the mysterious reef. During one of his adventures he is captured by aquarium fish dealers, who sell him. Fortunately, this adventure ends well. In our world today, things are a bit different. The clown of yesteryear was a harlequin, a comedian or a gaily painted joker in a circus who wanted to make you laugh. But who are today’s clowns? Do they still make us laugh or are they just hucksters? That’s what this blog is about.

Not so good news
On May 28^th the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) published its annual five-year forecast 2025-2029. One of the key messages is: There is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029, will be more than 1.5°C. Since 2023, that chance has more than doubled. All this without taking into account emissions from wars, which are unknown but do exist. The signal is that we are not doing the right thing. We continue to dance carefree on an erupting volcano.

Clearly, short-term thinking is the order of the day. Gruesome wars in and near Europe and the re-election of climate denier Donald Trump are contributing to this. In 2024, global CO₂ emissions again reached a record high of 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ (GtCO₂). That is 1.08% higher than in 2023. Last year was also a year during which warming remained above the 1.5^oC mark for the first time all year.

“ According to the WMO, there is a 70% chance that the
average warming over the next five years (2025-2029)
will be above the 1.5^oC. “

As for the European Union, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Green Deal is being watered down further. The new European climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is showing, as was to be expected, that he considers the original Green Deal too ambitious and especially too green. The weakening lies in the use of a controversial mechanism to achieve the 90% reduction by 2040: the use of international carbon credits. With this, the EU wants to meet part of its 2040 target by paying for climate projects in poorer countries. Thus, diluting both the Green Deal and the climate credibility of an increasingly right-wing Europe.

Warm weather and forest fires

Copernicus seasonal forecasts for Europe, for June-August (left) and August-October (right). Both images show the high likelihood of a very warm summer and autumn. © Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Every day the planet continues to heat up, every day biodiversity continues to decline and every day we continue, unabashedly, to pollute our environment on an industrial scale. This is leading among others, to dramatic climate changes and extreme weather events. This year again, the seasonal forecasts are worry some. After a winter that was not a winter, we now have a summer coming up that, like two years ago, will set many heat records. Our farmers will complain again, water will again become a scarce commodity, rivers will again become impassable and glaciers will melt at an accelerated pace. Air-conditioning sales will be on the rise again, the number of heat deaths will rise and daily weather forecasts will go to record lows again, as they did two years ago. I suspect the current weather forecast models are no match for the fickleness of our climate change. Yet, many tourists are again heading to the blood-hot Mediterranean region for their ‘well needed and deserved’ holidays. This while the Mediterranean will again be ravaged by underwater heat waves, causing much water to evaporate, while we can wait for the next destructive water bombs.

The number of forest fires has been rising alarmingly fast in recent years. Last year, on a global level, was again the ‘warmest year on record’. The WMO calculated that in 2024, the average temperature at the Earth’s surface was about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 average. Forest fires were mainly in the tropics, such as those in the Pantanal in Brazil, the largest wetland area in the world. Increasingly, fires are now also occurring in the colder boreal forests in Canada and Russia too. On May 20^th, the World Research Institute published the latest results from the University of Maryland’s GLAD Lab: by 2024, as many as 6.7 million hectares (670,000 km²) of tropical rainforest was lost. That’s twice as much as in 2023. This is an area as large as Belgium and France combined or one football field every minute. In total, these fires emitted 4.1 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases, more than four times the emissions of all air travel in 2023.

By 11 June, 220 forest fires had already been counted in the Canadian “prairie states”, burning an area the size of Belgium. On 18-19 May, the Canadian smoke plume, via the jet stream, reached the Mediterranean. © Government of Manitoba (left) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).

This year, the forest fire season in Canada started early again. Due to the dry spring, hundreds of forest fires have already started in the so-called “prairie states”, since May. The “prairie states” refer to the Canadian provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, which lie in the centre of Canada, at the US border. It is an important agricultural and industrial region. The smoke is worsening air quality in much of North America, but the effects are also being felt in Europe. This further underscores the seriousness of the situation we have brought ourselves in through lack of political courage. It goes without saying that we are still doing far too little to tackle our climate change, which is an existential threat. This has far-reaching consequences with rapidly rising costs.

Are our politicians living on another planet?
Do you know Marc Rutte? You should know him as the Netherlands’ longest-serving teflon liberal prime minister. He became known for the surcharge affair and for his East Indian deafness to the Groningers, who bear the brunt of the gigantic gas extractions in their province. Shell and the Dutch state got rich from it. The Groninger did not. Since 1 October 2024, Rutte has been secretary-general of NATO. After nine months, he finally gives birth to his first “brain child”: the NATO norm of 5% of the gross domestic product, GDP. With that, he wants to rein in the Russian bear, keep Trump friendly and appeased, stand up for businesses, as befits a liberal, and make citizens bleed again.

Needless to say, this new NATO norm is the subject of much debate in Europe, where plenty has been able to enjoy the peace dividend coming available after the end of the Cold War with the fall of the Wall. Even in Belgium, where NATO’s headquarters are located, the debate is flaring up. For instance, Belgian economist Professor Gert Peersman calculated that this will lead to an annual contribution of €6000 per capita, which is unrealistic. Another common argument is that an optimisation of European defence spending is needed first. However, the Dutch former NATO chief Admiral Ron Bauer, sees this quite differently. It is a backlog that needs to be cleared. He also stresses that NATO “does not spend that money to go to war, but to prevent it. Should it do come to war, the costs are much higher.” So, the NATO standard proposed Rutte and required by Trump, is a kind of insurance premium against the consequences of war.

“ The rabid Russian bear and the US bald eagle threaten our
democracy. Billions roll into the arms industry, while we barely
‘arm ourselves’ against the biggest threats ever – pollution, climate
change and biodiversity loss – that threaten our only home, planet Earth. “

On 28 April 2025, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a staggering report on military spending in our world. This independent, international Stockholm-based institute has been conducting global research on violence, armament, arms control and disarmament since 1966. Its annual update on 2024 shows that military spending, which is going on for a decade, has increased by 9.4% to $2718 billion. This spending is 2.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP). Per capita of the world’s population, it was $334; the highest since 1990. It also is almost half the money with which 700 million people in extreme poverty had to make ends meet in the same year.

Global military spending by region, 1988-2024 and (right) through 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. © SIPRI

The main conclusions of the SIPRI report on 2024 are:

• The “Big Five” are the United States (37%), China (12%), Russia (5.5%), Germany (3.3%) and India (3.2%). Collectively, they account for 60% of global military spending of $1634.60.
• US military spending was $997 billion; China’s is estimated at $314 billion. According to the 2022 US National Defense Strategy (NDS) published in 2022, this military effort is aimed at strengthening deterrence against Russia in the short term and against China in the long term.
• Military spending by aggressor Russia increased by 38%. They are estimated at $149 billion or 7.1% of GDP.
• Ukraine, a victim of that besotted Russian bear, ranks eighth in terms of military spending. Spending rose 2.9% to $64.7 billion representing 34% of its GDP.
• Total military spending in Europe rose 17% to $693 billion. Except Malta, all European countries increased their military spending in 2024.
• In 2024, total military spending by NATO members was $1506 billion dollars, or 55% of the global spending.
• European NATO members contributed a total of almost a third of this, being $454 billion (About 3 times the Russian spending). Of the 32 NATO members, 18 spent at least 2.0% of their GDP on their military in 2024. In 2023, the figure was 11. Teflon Marc Rutte, under pressure from Donald Trump, paved the way for the The Hague NATO-meeting, and its acceptance of a 5% or $1135 billion spending target in 2035. That’s more than US military spending in 2024 and well after passing the first global environmental tipping points.

Good news and hope

Money is not a problem at all
The good signal from the SIPRI story above is that, if politics wants it, money is not a problem at all. The fear for the Russian bear and the dazed US bald eagle is really in the minds of today’s, in my view, average politicians. This threat they apparently can understand. The one of the 3-fold global crisis (climate, biodiversity and pollution), they cannot or do not want to understand. Yet, it is precisely this creeping threat that affects everyone.

The world is changing rapidly. We are in the midst of robust systemic change. That does not mean that the new fascists of our time should not be knocked back. In the contrary, they should. In particular, the injustices perpetrated by some selfish “leaders” like Putin, Netanyahu and Trump, need to be addressed. But the real global crisis should not be forgotten when the billions start rolling in to ramp up our military efforts, while bombing away and even amplifying the existential crisis facing Homo sapiens, the wise man.

It is bizarre to note that since 2009 we have failed to deliver the promised mobilising $100 billion a year for developing countries to adapt to our climate change and cut greenhouse gas emissions. The scale of finance needed is significant and increasing each day we postpone fair actions. UN estimates say that emerging markets and developing countries (excluding China) need between $2.3 trillion and $2.5 trillion a year by 2030, to meet their climate goals. That is four times what is currently invested.

In November 2024, the International Chamber of Commerce published a report, in which was estimated that the global economic losses during some 4,000 events from 2014 to 2023, was around $2 trillion in 2023 prices. In 2022 and 2023 alone, economic damages reached $451 billion, representing a 19% increase compared to the annual average from the preceding eight years.

Farmer sues polluter
Saúl Luciano Lliuya is a farmer and mountain guide in Peru who, ten years ago, held the German energy giant RWE (Rheinisch-Westfälisches Elektrizitätswerk) liable for the melting of his glacier in the Peruvian Andes. Indeed, that melting creates a natural reservoir that will eventually wipe out his village, as happened to the Swiss village of Blatten last month. However, the court ruled that he will not get any compensation. Yet, the ruling does have serious implications for the many polluting businesses, as the court considered an appeal on “nuisance”. This opens the legal door to the argument that people can also be inconvenienced by atmospheric pollution from carbon emissions. Although many governments and international companies regularly disregard these rulings, it pays to use the legal route to denounce the inaction and policies. In fact, as is the case with war criminals, politicians and CEOs concerned should also be held personally accountable for their actions.

New technology is not the solution
We are often still deliberately blinded about the supposedly “limitless” possibilities of new technology, in which ecomodernists seem to believe blindly. Yet, they could know that the belief in progress since the British industrial revolution, has an extremely black downside. Of course, the new technology sung in all hymns has that too. New technology, such as AI or CO₂ capture and storage (CCC), will not be an exception at all. AI is a turbo energy guzzler. The current AI infrastructure consumes as much energy as Switzerland. That also means CO₂ emissions are rising. Over the 2020-2023 period, that CO₂ emissions increase averaged as much as 150% for the four major players: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta. And this at a time when we need to be more energy efficient.

The lessons of the clownfish

First of all, I don’t think this cute little fish came up with its name (Amphiprion ocellaris) by itself. This Latin naming is the result of the work of the famous, Swedish, 18^th-century scholar Carl Linnaeus. He was the man who, with his Systema Naturae, brought order into the chaos of plant and animal naming, by giving each species the name of the genus and that of the species. He applied this consistently to all animals and plants. As for ourselves, in 1758 he introduced the name Homo sapiens, the wise man, thus also capturing the then current perception that animals and plants are not wise; only man is wise, they thought. This is a deep and dangerous mistake.

Clownfish adapt to underwater heat waves in New Guinea by shrinking. © Morgan Bennett-Smith.

We apparently think that this excellently adapted to its natural environment fish, is a clown. But nothing could be further from the truth. With its bright orange colour and distinctive three white vertical stripes, you cannot overlook this special little fish. They certainly are special, as they are all born male and have a life-long symbiotic relationship with sea anemones. Clownfish live in small groups. At some point, the oldest and, I assume, wisest fish turns into a female. She becomes the biggest fish in the group. The second oldest and smaller male in the group becomes, after some skirmishes with the other males, the dominant sexually mature male. Together, they provide offspring. Each time, the female lays about 100 eggs, which the male then fertilises. If the female dies, the process repeats itself.

The clownfish lives in coral reef areas and depends on a specific anemone. They do not seek out other anemones to establish outposts like we try to do on the Moon or maybe even once on Mars. Without thinking about it, they know that they have only one anemone to live with. So, they live in harmony. They do nothing to damage or pollute their only home, reducing its carrying capacity and jeopardising their livelihood. Thanks to our much-vaunted technological advances, we are doing just the opposite. In my opinion the fish we named a clown, is a wise fish.

“ Clownfish know their place in nature. Homo sapiens,
the self-proclaimed wise man, no longer does. “

Clownfish not only know their place in nature, but they are an intrinsic part of it. Our climate change is increasingly causing ocean warming and underwater heat waves, from which coral reefs suffer greatly, including the clownfish. They have to adapt. Like we should do too. Last month paper in Science Advances shows, they have found a very special solution to this: clownfish physically are getting smaller and are slimming down! It is as if they jointly start a degrowth process in which they start to consume less to survive our human made disaster. During this process, however, care is taken to maintain the size difference between the female, who is in charge, and the males. In other words: you shrink, then I will shrink too. I consider this a disarming thought!

Surely our maddened leaders could and should do the same. Just downsize their personal ambitions for once or just consider what their place is in nature. Just leave the so-called “blessings” of the Enlightenment, which is merely a Western philosophical construct, as well as that naïve belief in progress through new technology, for what they are: fabrications and inventions of Homo sapiens, the self-proclaimed wise man. Therefore, I leave answering the question in the title of this blog Who is the clown? to the reader him- or herself. You know my answer by now, I assume.

JHS/ 26-06-2025 09.10